My view on Indian Manuacturing and why you should invest there....

My basic degree is in commerce, professional training in Company law and my post graduation in management..... so its surprising I have spent so much time in manufacturing plants... I might have been a good engineer, I will never get to know, but I still love the look and feel of a manufacturing setup....

Most people who track the stock markets and keep track of that beast called the IIP will notice that the Decemeber number is lower, the last quarter has seen some slowing in the corporate earnings and I have started to hear how maybe the earnings growth will come down from the mighty numbers that drove the stock market frenzy to a large extent... But wait I have a theory about this....

A few quarters ago when the media and the so called protectors of "common man" were in a frenzy about inflation and the big daddies in the government were saying how some of this is supply led and how monetary measures would be ineffective, what they were saying was, we were heading up a capacity constraint in most of the agriculture related and manufacturing related sectors. So what was being done - the government/ RBI took measures to cool down the economy ( about which I have huge issues about how they went about it, but thats for a different post) , but what were industries upto during this phase? My guess (and here I am risking to make a statement without much analysis on data) is that corporates are building capacity. Manufacturing capacity is lumpy, takes time to come on tap and usually comes with a lag.... people who have analysed cyclical industries will see patterns of boom and bust driven by a cycle of - system inventory going down - capacity shortage - huge capacity addition - system inventory going up - price war - bam Bust ! - something similar is happening in India, capacity is coming up. But unlike the cyclicality, i think the Indian manufacturing industry will use this to improve their margins...How?

Most Indian manufacturing units are small compared to global standards, and although the best part of the last decade has been the improvement in efficiency , most of it I believe are work practice led efficiency gains, not technology led. So you had relatively small units with high shop floor efficiency driving profit improvement. Now the scale of operations for Indian units is changing, so people driven partly by tax breaks, are moving to places like Baddi, Rudrapur, Haridwar etc and setting up larger units and invariably with better technology. So the next wave of improvement is set to be driven by technology led efficiency ( and the assumption here is that the efficiency gains from work practice led improvement will not be lost ). Larger better technology led factories with scale economies slightly offset by additional logistics costs will keep the manufacturing margins high. So I would suggest look closely at those schedules in the Balance sheet and profit and loss, see Q-o-Q profitability improvement, remove seasonality and bet on Indian manufacturing for the next 3-5 years. ( Red Flag : Keep away from industries like Two wheelers, paper - where I think the segment might not be viable due to market dynamics for sometime). And you know what is the hidden zing you might get from all this - a one time bonanza since most Indian manufacturing is on the outskirts of cities (Peenya in Bangalore, Ambattur in chennai?, Mumbai) where land from the smaller factories will be freed up since manufacturing will become difficult to carry on since they will become closer and closer to prime residential areas.... so they will setup SPV/ spinoff companies, develop this real estate and push more of the production to the larger factories.

There is still one more wave after this where efficiency will come into play and that is the logistics improvement in factory gate - to intermediate distribution- to last mile distribution. Efficiency in terms of road infrastructure, de-bottlenecking out check posts ( remove the damn things you guys!!!!), warehousing, professional distributors etc. But these require fiscal measures and process improvement in this country..... and with what I think is the most inefficient goverment in the last decade at helm I dont see anything happening.

So bottomline - spend time on research, buy good Indian manufacturing companies and make some money.


There is an SEZ angle, outbound M&A angle and domestic market development angle to all this.... that might be part II to this post....

So you want to start investing.....

go right ahead, you should, after all there have been tomes and tomes written about how inflation eats into your savings and how you should invest in equity blah blah blah. So here is a checklist of what I think you should be doing -

1. Do you have a clue about what your expenses are? - this is because most of us have a good idea of the income - so get a hang of the disposable income - then how much you dispose every month and see what you have left to invest ( * Note - I am not going to talk about a plan that you need to have before you invest in - thats for a different post)
2. Setup an emergency fund - the funds in this should cover anywhere between 3-6 months of your expenses. I suggest you send this money into a fixed deposit or a liquid fund. Ask your bank to setup a overdraft on this money - so that if ever required you draw down immediately while earning interest
3. Get insured - medical and life - this ensures your lifestyle remains the same ( how much insurance to buy - another post - or will link to some good reading)
4. Whatever is left - split the money into 3
   

• Money you surely want in a year or two - send this into debt products - a bank FD, a Fixed maturity plan, a debt fund - depending on what you are comfortable with
  
• Money you dont want for the next 3-5 years - invest in a mutual fund - select base funds which will form the core of your portfolio - start a systematic investment plan on this and forget about using it - review this monthly and a thorough review quarterly/ half yearly
  
• Money you can afford to lose and will not lose sleep if you lost it - take it and invest directly in shares - but come to this step only if all the above are done

Now how to select a fund , a stock etc - I shall post sometime soon..

A sub optimal way of investing

I have had banking as a sector to invest for a long time, but due to time constraints, have not been able to research on the sector and identify the right candidates. While the obvious ones stand out, I would still like to research before I invest. So as to not lose out on the opportunity, I invested in Banking Benchmark exchange traded fund ( BANK BEES). My average cost of entry has been Rs 684 (adjusted for brokerage and divindend) , the current rate is 807 - over 3 months thats a return of 17.98%. Which is quite Ok I think. The other way I could have participated in this is through a banking mutual fund. The average category return is ~22.5%. If I were to adjust the entry load that most funds would levy, it comes down to 19.45%. So I have lost about 2.3% for not having invested in an actively managed fund.

I got thinking, I am sure there would have been better returns if I had spent time on researching, but given the fact that I am not too sure of evaluating banks ( you cannot go by the traditional way of researching companies to evaluate a financial institution) and since I did not have the time, I took a lazy way out. Maybe I should use those hours I clock in the flights on reading up on such things and researching. It will be time worth spent. But first I should get my sleep quota, which I try to fill in on the flights.

But I am still bullish on banking, will post on my picks...

Where is the error?

I use a fundamental analysis mode to shortlist stocks and then watch them for sometime to get a feel of the range in which they seem to move and then buy in....I seem to manage to get good set of stocks into the watchlist... but then I seem to be going wrong in my execution - while I picked Gujarat NRE coke, IVRCL and RNRL at the right time, I missed out on Crompton Greaves, ICICI and Sesa Goa.

I am trying to understand why I finally execute the trades I do and the ones I dont - still not very sure. The other problem is the target price I have - once I hit 30% return, I get jittery and some how feel like its time to exit, while the stock might be headed higher ( E.g - ACC ) - I need to improve my target pricing, which will hopefully also let me understand the margin of safety on a stock.

I am stuck with a dud currently - Federal Mogul goetze - its more than 45% down from my acquisition price and will do some research and dump it very soon - didnt cut my losses in this stock - I could have done it when I was 25% down but then that figure looked daunting - stupid move - Will post what my thinking was, and why I think I should move out in a different post.

Current on the watchlist - Manugraph, ICICI bank and Vijaya Bank

Caught in an investment bind

Right now I am evaluating a few investment opportunities :

1) locking in some returns by going into a close ended fund heading into redemption in the next 18 months
2) some value picks which came through my filters- where I have not been able to research my them : Currently evaluating : Areva T&D ( has made a move over the last 2 days - maybe a missed opportunity), the other value pickers favourite - Kirloskar Oil engines ltd, Paramount communications, Prajay Engineers, birla corporation.... hmm, where will I go, will study over the weekend
3) An exchange traded fund ( Whats that? - will post the next time) in a sector where I think there is a lot of opportunity.
4) Safe haven investment - bag the blue chips - L&T, SBI, Reliance

Whats the catch - I dont have money :-) ..... so much for planning. I have just booked about 115% + annualised returns on some cement investment ( avg holding 30+ days) - While I still hold some cement stock and am impressed with their pricing power, if it reaches further levels, i will exit further and see if I can move my profits elsewhere.... but atleast till 2009 beginning, I will love the sector - what will happen then - supposedly some supply will come through easing the pricing power.

And as an aside, my experience with my investment in Fixed Maturity Plan of HDFC has been good. If this continues, maybe I will move a higher amount to the FMP mode. ( I intend to post about FMPs and ETFs sometime very soon. Maybe I need also check out if there are any index funds in the sector I am targeting - Good news - SEBI has capped fund management fees at a lower level than active managed funds....

Investor grievance redressal

If you are an investor in India where shareholder democracy is a still born child and companies frequently ride roughshod over the rights of investors, we need some activism. While class activism took off in the west long ago, India is yet to see anything of that sort. Hedge fund activism is now the inthing. Funds like Efficient frontier ( not able to find the link) have forced a discussion about the leverage being carried by vodafone and are atleast forcing a discussion.

The regulatory mechanism in India has improved by leaps and bounds in the last decade. But have we achieved anything for the individual investor is the question. And when I mean by investor here is not just the equity investor but also the debenture instruments and public/ company deposits. Debenture trustees have failed their mandate in India, rarely have they been able to carry out the duty that their role envisaged.

In case of equity investors multiple avenues exist - you could complain to the stock exchanges ( which have a investor cell - funded by various internal sources), or SEBI. Complaints like non receipt of dividend, demat requests, bonus shares, annual reports ( its your right as a shareholder to receive them!!!) and such others. You could also write to the cells of NSDL and CDSL and try to resolve this.

In case of public deposits, the authority for this was (is?) the Company Law Board (CLB) which passes the orders. NBFCs and for those who are old enough those teak, sheep, plantation companies ( remember guru kiran, Anubhav et al?? ) are regulated by RBI.

But there is another glimmer of hope, check out www.investorhelipline.in its run by a group called Midas Touch investor association and supported by the Ministry of Company affairs , Govt of India. While the government has nothing much to do and has no association to this site, I think the group has done a wonderful job of helping investors out. Till date they have helped resolve 730 cases, which is remarkable. While it might seem very small, remember this is when they have no legal power ( as in punitive) to pursue the cases but still ave managed this. Good show guys, keep up the good work.

So if you ever get stuck with some issue and company is playing hardball, you know who your friends are.

"Development of a fair, transparent, efficient capital market having a participative, enlightened and an empowered investor." is what investorhelpline says its mission is, lets clink glasses to that

Company deposits - a calculated risk

I posted about the deep discount bonds last time, that assumes that you have money for long term debt options. While most people will suggest that if you are ready to lock funds for periods like 10 years, then go for equity, my suggestion is to keep a healthy mix of debt and equity unless you are a very short term investor (defined as 1 year horizon).

I am also assuming that you have already looked at the standard options like the Bank FDs, Post office schemes etc.

The other option available if you are open to a higher degree of risk is you should be looking at some company deposits to bolster your portfolio returns. Keep in mind that most of the company deposits are unsecured in nature and any loss will land you with Zero money in most cases. having got that flag away, lets focus on how you can add this thing to your portfolio - 2 sites which seem to have a good list are moneypore and Bajaj capital. Check only companies which are profit making and have a history of dividend payment and long history of fixed deposits. As per law, a statutory adevertisement is to be released by the company, check this out, this gives information about the company, its history and operational details etc. My personal tenure for most of these is 1 year, I usually review the companies performance and review whether I need to renew or not. Always check the credit rating for the instrument. If there is no credit rating ( not probable) or has not been revealed steer clear.

What can you expect from these investments - maybe +1 to +2 % on interest rate on AAA rated instruments for a year over the bank deposits, but in the current scenario the gap has reduced.

I will post about that new kid on the block Fixed Maturity plans next, keep reading....

Return of the sith with bullshit?

Back from a long break, hoping to blog more often from now on.

I have been reading Bill Bryson - A short history of nearly everything - Dhammo said, hope atleast these people landed in heaven - how true. Some of the guys mentioned have pushed the frontiers of our knowledge to limits which have seriously enriched the homo sapien understanding of the world.

As an aside, I intend to look at investment opportunities in this blog, so if you looking for some investment analysis, keep visiting.

Since I have been a great fan of Benjamin Graham, I believe in maintaining a very balanced portfolio - debt and equity in the portfolio. I still have not mastered the balancing bit and hope to setup some rules for myself, so that I can effectively book profits in a bull market and cash on capital appreciation.

I am trying to build a balanced portfolio and will share some of the instruments I am using to this effect.

Lets start with debt - I will write about some interesting options on the fixed income side and then move to the equity side.

NABARD has launched the Bhavishya Nirman Bonds - the current one on tap has a fairly good yield for a debt instrument of 10 year tenure. It is a deep discount bond/zero coupon bond with a face value of Rs . 20000 and a tenure of 10 years, issued at a price of 8250 if you are a retail investor. Its an unsecured instrument mind you, so maybe the premium is justified. I need to check out the current t-bill yield but locking in a pre tax 9% quarterly compounded yield is fairly good I think. If you can take that kind of a tenure then investing in this makes sense.

Although the option of holding this investment in demat form exists, trading on the BSE is in physical form and in market lots of 50 , which is slightly large. I have not checked the trading volumes of deep discount bonds but the option does mean you have some liquidity. Odd lot trading was something from the era of paper trading and am not most guys understand it today.
Should one invest in a deep discount bond ? The main advantage is that you avoid the re-investment risk, and (need to check on this!) the tax treatment - where the interest is considered capital gain and not income, helps if you are in the higher income bracket.

check it out at www.nabard.org.

Disclaimer : This is not an investment advice, you should speak to a qualified financial planner and tax consultant before acting on this post. This represents my view and my view only, not of my organisation, my parents , my pet fish or any other entity living, dead, fictional or otherwise.